FX2 | Fixed-Income2.com portfolio is designed to protect our clients against inflation, with a focus on short term, maturity certain bonds.
Historically, interest rates move in 30 year cycles. Thus interest rates have been falling for about 30 years until the 4th quarter 2012. Not only did interest rates decline for about 30 years, they hit almost zero, an artificially low level. This low level was caused by the Federal Reserve, in a effort to keep short term interest rates at about zero while at the same time pumping large amounts of new money into the system to stimulate the US economy.
We have learned though history that this kind of activity, repeated over a long period of time, could and will have negative long term effects, for example not only helping interest rates to rise, but often creating a similar duration and magnitude opposite swing. Just like a clock pendulum. When you move a clock pendulum to the left many degrees and then let go it will come close to the same movement past center to the right before it begins to find it’s equilibrium, this in finance is this effect is called Regression to the means. So if interest rates are artificiality low with a large pumping of new money, now for over 5 years, at some point this could cause an opposite effect proving a equally overly high interest rates, for about the same 5 year time period. Either way we believe interest rates over the foreseeable future will be rising and the best way to deal with this is the keep your maturities very short and certain, and your bond coupons high. Read more